Donald Trump and Global Economy
The global economy was already on a rough ride due to low consumer confidence and business, weak investments and depressed commodity markets, rising debt and low interest rates, and much more. And now, to add more to the rough ride, the surprise victory of Donald Trump is another integer in the equation. Here are some of the concerns that can derail the global economy further in the Trump era.
Author/Copyright: Ahmed Dawn www.adawnjournal.com
Imposing a 45 percent tariff on Chinese imported goods. This will make everything more expensive for consumers (goods made in USA also use Chinese materials) and China might retaliate with similar tariff on US imports. In the end, everyone in the globe will be a loser.
Mexico has the most to lose if Trump does what he said he would do. Dismantling NAFTA, slapping a 35 percent tariff, rounding up illegal immigrants, and possibly more will have economic impacts on Mexico and in the US as well.
Canada actually can both gain and lose from Trump’s presidency. Cancelling or renegotiating the TTIP and NAFTA agreements are both negatives. However, approving the Keystone XL Pipeline would allow shipment of bitumen from Alberta to the U.S. and would be definitely a plus.
Trump has argued that by neglecting national debt by cutting taxes for the wealthy, cutting regulations, and reducing imports he can make the GDP grow 4 percent (from 2 percent currently). However, analysts disagree. Many believe that adopting Trump’s proposals on trades, taxes, immigration and government spending would destroy millions of jobs and the U.S. economy will be isolated and diminished.
Also, US dollars are still the main reserve currency in the world and only the US Federal Reserve is responsible for the supply. If Trump tries to influence the Fed’s policies and interest rates, it will create havoc both in the U.S. and global economy.